Building the Perfect User Interface (Part 3)

In part 1 of this article, I made a quick and handy definition of user interface: Given technology as a black box, user interface is how you tell the black box what you want it to do. In part 2, I listed some things wrong with the current state of user interface, using Google as a prime example.

So we clearly haven’t yet mastered the science of user interface here in the 21st century. But what is it we’re striving towards? What’s the perfect user interface? In, say, a thousand years, when we have unlimited computing power and unlimited energy (like the characters of my novels Infoquake and MultiReal), what kinds of user interface will we be using?

Apple iMac Let’s take the question one necessary step further: do we really need user interface at all? Or are we evolving toward the point where intelligent tools automatically understand what we’re trying to do? In a thousand years, will the concept of giving commands be obsolete?

Software developers are taking the first tentative steps in that direction now. Apple’s Steve Jobs has always taken that “benevolent dictator” approach: we’ll decide what you, the user, need to handle, and the machine will just automatically handle the rest. Take disk defragmentation, a software task that only the wonkiest of technowonks has any interest in controlling. There isn’t any standard disk defragmenter for Macs, but that’s not because Mac hard disks never need defragmenting. OS X simply does it for you behind the scenes, as this article on the Apple website makes clear.

Microsoft is moving in this direction too. One of the advantages that Windows users have historically held over Mac users is the fact that it’s generally easier to get under the hood and tweak the gears that make the system work. But that’s going away. Not only because OS X has brought command-line tweaking to the Mac, but because Vista is taking away a lot of tweakability from Windows. Disk defragmentation under Vista is a simple on-off proposition; flip it on, and the OS will handle it as needed. Likewise, throughout the operating system, interfaces that were once cluttered with hierarchical menus and interactive dialog boxes are giving way to much smaller lists of context-sensitive tasks. (For more of my thoughts on this, see old blog posts Don’t Worry, Vista Will Handle It and Look Ma… No Program Menus!)

It’s the same long-term trajectory of user interface we’ve seen in automobiles. Look at the user interface for the Model T (pictured, below; original photo, with explanations and more detail, here). Most modern automobiles have reduced this to a standard set of four controls — the gas, the brake, the steering wheel, and the gear shift. It’s not that the car doesn’t still need all those functions, but now the car handles everything itself. It’s not exposed to the end user. If you believe the so-called experts, we’ll all be zipping around in self-driving robot cars within a generation.

Ford Model T ControlsFollow this trend several hundred years, and where does it lead? I talked previously about elevators that automatically know which floor you’re going to via RFID chips in your apartment keys. Why couldn’t that work elsewhere? Maybe you’ll pull into the Starbucks parking lot and find your usual soy milk decaf latte waiting when you get up to the counter. Maybe the refrigerator will automatically order more eggs from the store when you take the last two out. Maybe the polling station will know that you’re a member of the Christian Coalition and have a ballot all queued up with Mike Huckabee’s name checked when you get up to the voting booth.

There’s something very unsettling about these scenarios, and it’s not just the potential privacy hazards. Humans want to be in control of our environment; we instinctively resist environments that control us. Not only that, but we quickly grow bored with environments that coddle us. Humans are designed for dynamism, dissatisfaction, and change; despite the stereotype of modern man as couch potato, as a species we don’t handle stasis well.

So we like to be in control of our surroundings. But how much of this control is just feel-good illusion? When you order a hamburger at Burger King, sure, they’ll make it your way — as long as “your way” only involves their nine predefined toppings. And when you ask for lettuce, you can’t control how much, or whether they use shredded iceberg or delicately layered romaine, or whether it comes from West Virginia or Peru or Ecuador. Burger King’s real slogan should be “Have It Your Way, As Long As Your Way Falls Within the Narrow Parameters of Our Way.”

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The Ever-Expanding Brand

News flash: Starbucks expanded too fast.

Or at least, so says Starbucks founder Howard Schultz in a memo that circulated on the Internet recently. The chain went from 1,000 to 13,000 locations in a decade. As a result, Starbucks has gone from the epitome of cool — which it really was, back when grunge was the hip thing — to, well, Starbucks. I think I literally pass about 15 Starbucks on my way to work in the morning, and those are just the ones that are within half a mile of the highway.

And yet, it’s easy to forget that Starbucks practically invented the modern coffeehouse. When I was in high school, there were no hip coffeehouses to hang out in. If you wanted to hang out and gab with your friends in a public place, you went to the mall. If you wanted to drink coffee, there was the Folger’s brand dreck you buy at the supermarket, or there were fancy-schmancy imported European brands. The first Starbucks were a revelation. Great coffee, great eye for design, quirky attitude, and socially responsible too! (Or so we believed then.)

Daniel Gross wrote a fascinating piece in the L.A. Times this weekend about companies, like Starbucks, that expand too quickly and sacrifice their brand magic. Other case studies of the trend, according to the article, include Krispy Kreme, Restoration Hardware, Snapple, and California Pizza Kitchen. All once exclusive — nay, magical — consumer experiences, all blanded down by Wall Street’s push for ever-expanding profits. Remember the first time you walked into Restoration Hardware? It was awesome. Now? Not so much. I might add to this list The Sharper Image, Tower Records, Boston Market, the Olive Garden, TGI Friday’s, and IKEA.

Extend the concept to television, and you’ve got Seinfeld, Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, and Star Trek. Film franchises? All I have to say is that Lethal Weapon was considered edgy on its release in 1987. The Batman and Superman series fell into self-parody and both needed expensive reboots. (Star Trek is supposedly next in line for a reboot, with Matt Damon, Adrien Brody, and Gary Sinise reportedly in line to play the young Kirk, Spock, and Bones. I kid you not.) Books? I would argue that Orson Scott Card has screwed the pooch on the marvelous Ender series with his increasingly wretched (and seemingly endless) series of Bean books and tie-in stories. (I could even go so far as to suggest the United States is subject to this phenomenon as well, but I don’t feel like getting political today.)

I wrote about this phenomenon in Infoquake. In fact, this arc of rise, bloat, and fall is one of the principle themes of the Jump 225 Trilogy. It seems to me that this is simply the way the world works. Brands, like people, like companies, like everything, are only allotted so much time on this Earth. Marketplace pressures demand that they expand quickly, and then the same marketplace pressures will pull them back down again. Nobody has yet found the magical formula to extend a company indefinitely, just like nobody has yet found the magical formula to extend people indefinitely.

Think of the brands that have stood the test of time. Coke, Sears, J.C. Penney, Ford, KMart. The only reason Coke continues its market domination, I’m convinced, is because of the virtual monopoly on the soda industry it shares with Pepsi, and that mostly has to do with distribution. There’s not a major stadium or movie theater chain or fast food franchise in America that doesn’t carry either Coke or Pepsi products. Give consumers a real choice and I’m betting that many of them would opt for R.C. or Virgin. Sears and Penney’s will soon go the way of Montgomery Ward, and Ford’s and KMart’s futures aren’t exactly looking promising.

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Ten Tech Companies That Blew It in the Past Two Decades

I had a high-tech CEO ask me the loaded question to end all loaded questions the other day. What makes a technology company succeed?

It’s almost impossible to come up with a single answer, or even a single set of answers. What do Google, Microsoft, YouTube, MySpace, Digg, Mozilla, Adobe, Dell, and Apple have in common? I came up with a number of factors off the top of my head — empowering users, keeping a steady pace of innovation, good PR, making easy-to-use products — but none of them seemed to be the end-all, be-all of high-tech success.

So I decided to look at the question from the opposite angle. What makes a technology company fail? Here are a handful of companies from the past twenty years that strike me as prime examples of organizations who lost a commanding lead and/or market dominance in a particular field due to their own idiocy or incompetence.

Atari 2600 console1. Atari. The mass market videogame console was more or less invented by Atari in the late ’70s. Their only real competitor for years was Mattel’s Intellivision, which may have had vast technical superiority but had inept marketing. (George Plimpton? You’ve got to be kidding me.) But instead of innovating, Atari took the road of suing anyone and everyone who touched its much-beloved system. (Activision, Coleco, Starpath, Odyssey, Nintendo, Phillips, and Epyx all suffered Atari’s litigious wrath.) There was also a precipitous drop-off in videogame quality, as anyone who remembers notoriously bad media tie-ins like E.T. The original company was sold off many times and finally diluted to nothingness in the ’90s. The name still had such cachet, however, that Infogrames later licensed it for themselves.

2. Netscape. Netscape partisans and Microsoft haters have long promoted the urban legend that Microsoft drove this company into obscurity. And while Bill Gates & Co.’s anti-competitive practices certainly helped, ultimately the blame lies with the company itself. Netscape was running neck-and-neck with Microsoft in the browser wars for several years until its hideous Navigator 4 browser (which earned the company the Nutscrape label, among many other less complimentary names). Undeterred by their slipping fortunes, the company followed Navigator 4 with… nothing. For years. They pursued a ruinous portal strategy instead and sold out to AOL, who let the company completely die on the vine. Now Netscape is stuck with a dying portal website and an also-ran browser that piggybacks on both Internet Explorer and Firefox.

3. Palm. The early PalmPilots finally found the magic formula that had eluded so many other companies for so long. They were easy to use, integrated tolerably well with your PC, and were extremely reliable machines. No wonder the company built up such a network of software developers. And then a long series of ownership switches threw the platform’s future in the toilet. The result? Microsoft’s Pocket PC platform (now Windows Mobile) overtook the Palm on basic, must-have features (like oh, say, enabling a contact to have both a home and business address, which the Palm still can’t do). I read recently that the Palm OS actually still funnels everything through emulation software for its ancient Dragonball processor, which is a good indicator of how far behind the innovation curve these folks have gotten.

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